FALLING BIRTHRATES
Concern has been raised about Australia’s falling birth rates but many other countries are in a similar position with low fertility rates and little population growth. In fact, in some countries the population is shrinking.
It’s projected that Australia’s total fertility rate (TFR) will be 1.42 in 2026 but could rise to 1.62 in 2066. Both figures are below the long-term replacement rate of 2.1, a figure we have not seen since the 1970s. The proportion of women not having children or only one child has doubled. And the age at which women start having children is rising despite the fact that a woman’s fertility declines from the age of 20.
There are a number of reasons for falling fertility including a big increase in the time spent in education with 55 per cent of school-leavers going on to university. Young people are entering full-time employment at an age when their parents would have already started a family. Adolescence now extends into the 20s. Many young people do not leave home until about 25, and fewer are forming relationships with the opposite sex.
Research comparing house prices with fertility show a negative correlation. As house prices rise the fertility rate goes down.
Women are having less children than they would like and, apart from the high cost of living, social support, including from partners, parents, and friends, is important. It’s said that it takes a village to raise a child and in the modern urbanised environment many people don’t have that village.
While falling fertility is almost universal there are big differences between nations. The lowest rates tend to be in north east Asia, countries with high national IQs. The TFR in Macau is 0.69, Hong Kong is 0.73 and South Korea is 0.75. China’s population has been falling over recent years and Japan has not seen any population growth for 18 years.
Countries in sub-Saharan Africa, not noted for high national IQs, have the highest fertility. The Democratic Republic of Congo has a TFR of 5.90, Somalia is 5.91 and Chad is 5.94.
With Australia’s falling birth rate there is the worry that we won’t have enough young workers to pay taxes and support an aging population. This will no doubt be used as an excuse to flood more migrants into the country. The first problem here is that not only have migrants started to get older before they migrate here but on average migrants have a lower fertility rate than people born in Australia. The tendency for low IQ populations to have higher birth rates than high IQ populations is reflected in our immigrants. Migrants from north east Asia have a TFR of 0.82, those from north west Europe 1.40 and those from south and east Europe a little lower. On the other hand, migrants from North Africa and the Middle East have a TFR of 1.87 and those from parts of sub-Saharan Africa even higher. It’s not surprising that school results and average IQs in Australia are getting worse.
So, what should we do about falling birth rates. Some have suggested bringing back the baby bonus like that introduced during the Howard government. This raises two problems and one is that some no-hopers are likely to have kids just for the extra money. It will not solve the problem of inter-generational welfare dependence but more likely make it worse. Better alternatives would be to ease or remove the means test on support for families like the newborn allowance and Family Tax Benefits A and B, or, as suggested in a previous issue, allow parents to claim an amount off their taxable income for each dependent child they are raising.
Housing is also a problem due to its cost with Sydney being about the most expensive place in the world to buy property. Until recently housing costs have risen much higher than inflation in general or the average wage. People were being priced out of the market, hardly encouragement to start a family. Changes made in the last federal budget affecting tax on capital gains or the income from rental properties, along with the effect of rising interest rates, has lowered prices of homes in some areas but not others.
If the government were serious about the problem of falling fertility rates and the future of the country, they could ensure much more housing was built, including welfare and affordable housing. They could also have housing built and sold to those on moderate incomes at a subsidised cost.
Unfortunately, with the useless governments Australia has gotten used to it’s unlikely anything substantive will be done. Our population will get older and dumber, and our living standards will continue to stagnate.